{"id":913,"date":"2021-04-20T14:54:00","date_gmt":"2021-04-20T12:54:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.elicit-plant.com\/?p=913"},"modified":"2024-05-23T17:53:14","modified_gmt":"2024-05-23T15:53:14","slug":"sattendre-a-un-paysage-agricole-redessine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.elicit-plant.com\/fr\/blog\/changement-climatique\/sattendre-a-un-paysage-agricole-redessine\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u2019attendre \u00e0 un paysage agricole redessin\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n\t\t\t\"S’attendre\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\tStagno Lombardo (Cr), irrigazione artificiale in una coltivazione di soia,\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n
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\u00ab\u00a0Le premier marqueur du\u00a0changement climatique<\/a>\u00a0concerne la ph\u00e9nologie, soit les diff\u00e9rents stades de d\u00e9veloppement des cultures, comme les c\u00e9r\u00e9ales (tallage, montaison, floraison, \u00e9piaison, maturit\u00e9, etc.), explique Patrick Bertuzzi, ing\u00e9nieur de recherche \u00e0 l\u2019Inrae. Ces \u00e9tapes ont tendance \u00e0 avancer, du fait des opportunit\u00e9s croissantes pour des semis plus pr\u00e9coces mais aussi d\u2019une dur\u00e9e de cycle qui diminue \u00e0 cause du r\u00e9chauffement. Le calendrier de la culture est tr\u00e8s d\u00e9pendant de la temp\u00e9rature. Plus il fait chaud et plus le d\u00e9veloppement est rapide\u00a0!\u00a0\u00bb Il \u00e9voque des dates de r\u00e9coltes en c\u00e9r\u00e9ales avanc\u00e9es d\u2019environ quinze jours ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. De m\u00eame, le semis des cultures de printemps est plus pr\u00e9coce, de l\u2019ordre de huit \u00e0 dix jours. \u00ab\u00a0Pour le vin, dans le Sud de la France, les vendanges ont lieu trois semaines \u00e0 un mois plus t\u00f4t\u00a0!\u00a0\u00bb, s\u2019exclame-t-il. Selon lui, le ph\u00e9nom\u00e8ne est de plus en plus marqu\u00e9 depuis le d\u00e9but des ann\u00e9es 80.<\/p>\n

Un climat erratique et perturbant<\/h2>\n

Plus globalement, le\u00a0r\u00e9chauffement climatique<\/a>\u00a0s\u2019observe partout dans le monde, comme le rapporte le minist\u00e8re de la Transition Ecologique \u00e0 travers le site\u00a0Drias les futurs du Climat\u00a0<\/a>:\u00a0\u00ab\u00a0La temp\u00e9rature moyenne \u00e0 la surface de la Terre augmente depuis 1880 (NOAA, CRU, Nasa). Mais, la derni\u00e8re d\u00e9cennie est la plus chaude enregistr\u00e9e depuis le milieu du XIX\u00e8me si\u00e8cle.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n

Evolution du climat en M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e et en Europe :<\/h3>\n\n
<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n
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\n\t\t\t\"\"\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n
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Le r\u00e9chauffement en partie responsable de la stagnation des rendements<\/h2>\n

Par ailleurs, selon Patrick Bertuzzi,\u00a0\u00ab\u00a0\u00e0 l\u2019exemple des c\u00e9r\u00e9ales d\u2019hiver, comme le bl\u00e9 tendre d\u2019hiver, les rendements stagnent depuis les ann\u00e9es 80 alors que le progr\u00e8s g\u00e9n\u00e9tique n\u2019est pas limitant. Le changement climatique en serait \u00e0 l\u2019origine pour une bonne part.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em>\u00a0Et de continuer\u00a0:\u00a0\u00ab\u00a0De plus en plus, les conditions climatiques limitent l\u2019expression du potentiel g\u00e9n\u00e9tique de certaines cultures, notamment pour les ol\u00e9agineux et prot\u00e9agineux. Nous allons vers une production de plus en plus instable, avec une hausse des p\u00e9riodes de canicule ou de s\u00e9cheresse par exemple.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dans les pr\u00e9visions du Giec, la tendance globale est \u00e0 la baisse de rendement pour les cultures comme le bl\u00e9, le riz, le ma\u00efs et le soja.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n

<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n
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Une modification du paysage agricole fran\u00e7ais<\/h2>\n

Le dernier rapport du Groupe d\u2019experts intergouvernemental sur l\u2019\u00e9volution du climat (Giec) mod\u00e9lise plusieurs sc\u00e9narios en fonction des actions de l\u2019homme. Dans le pire des sc\u00e9narios (RCP8.5) o\u00f9 la tendance au r\u00e9chauffement climatique suivrait la m\u00eame pente qu\u2019aujourd\u2019hui, \u00ab\u00a0il faut s\u2019attendre \u00e0 une transformation majeure et progressive des paysages agricoles qui pourrait s\u2019enclencher dans les ann\u00e9es 2040-2050\u00a0\u00bb, analyse Patrick Bertuzzi, \u00ab\u00a0avec, \u00e0 un horizon de fin de si\u00e8cle, des climats proches du Maghreb actuel dans le Sud de la France et un climat plus m\u00e9diterran\u00e9en du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de Lyon par exemple.\u00a0\u00bb Il \u00e9voque une adaptation d\u00e9j\u00e0 active, mais plut\u00f4t subie, des pratiques agricoles par les agriculteurs\u00a0: irrigation, diversification des assolements, utilisation d\u2019un panel de vari\u00e9t\u00e9s r\u00e9sistantes, modification des dates de semis\u2026 Mais il pr\u00e9cise que \u00ab\u00a0l\u2019efficience de ces tactiques ne sera probablement pas suffisante et devra d\u00e9boucher sur des adaptations significatives des syst\u00e8mes agricoles. Cela aura pour cons\u00e9quence de changer en profondeur les paysages agricoles de la France. Et l\u2019intensit\u00e9 de ces changements d\u00e9pendra de la capacit\u00e9 mondiale \u00e0 r\u00e9duire les \u00e9missions de gaz \u00e0 effets de serre.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sources\u00a0:<\/em><\/p>\n

\n

Allison et al., 2009:\u00a0The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science,\u00a0UNSW Climate Change Research Center, Sydney, Australia, 2009, p. 11.<\/em><\/p>\n

Church\u00a0J. A. and N.J. White, 2006:\u00a0\u00a0A 20th century acceleration in global sea level rise,\u00a0Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L01602, doi:10.1029\/2005GL024826.<\/em><\/p>\n

Peterson et al., 2009:\u00a0State of the Climate in 2008,\u00a0Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v. 90, no. 8, August 2009, pp. S17-S18.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n

<\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n\n
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\n\t\t\t\tNos autres articles autour du r\u00e9chauffement climatique\t\t\t<\/h2>\n\t\t\n\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\n\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Les\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\tLes s\u00e9cheresses tendent \u00e0 remettre en question l\u2019implantation du ma\u00efs en France\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/i>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\n\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Tractor\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\tTous nos articles autour du changement climatique\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/i>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Canicules \u00e0 r\u00e9p\u00e9tition, gel\u00e9es tardives, avanc\u00e9e des dates de r\u00e9coltes, les agriculteurs sont aux premi\u00e8res loges pour voir les cons\u00e9quences du r\u00e9chauffement climatique, avec un impact in\u00e9vitable sur les techniques culturales et les niveaux de production.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":914,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"class_list":["post-913","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-changement-climatique"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nS\u2019attendre \u00e0 un paysage agricole redessin\u00e9 - Elicit Plant France<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Canicules \u00e0 r\u00e9p\u00e9tition, gel\u00e9es tardives, avanc\u00e9e des dates de r\u00e9coltes, les agriculteurs sont aux premi\u00e8res loges pour voir les cons\u00e9quences du r\u00e9chauffement climatique.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.elicit-plant.com\/fr\/blog\/changement-climatique\/sattendre-a-un-paysage-agricole-redessine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S\u2019attendre \u00e0 un paysage agricole redessin\u00e9 - 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